Stop, Election Ahead?
A look at Trump's theory that government can't function in an election year. Plus: do the shows campaigns advertise on tell us anything?
GOP theory of governance now holds that no branch of government may do anything good for the citizenry during an election year. Any such behavior would constitute election interference.
We learned a while ago, of course, that filling judiciary vacancies is verboten at such a time. Earlier this year we were told that legislation—such as bipartisan immigration reform—must be tabled. And the judiciary itself, along with prosecutorial offices, must obviously halt all trials, investigations, hearings, and even sentencing, lest the pursuit of truth and justice unfairly influence anyone’s voting intentions.
More recently we’ve been told that the Federal Reserve must not lower interest rates, even if—nay, especially if—doing so would clearly benefit the American economy. So said Donald Trump in July, anyway, and some supporters have reiterated the claim now that the Fed has done just that.
Why, it’s even unfair to work out diplomatic deals to bring home Americans unjustly held by enemy regimes. Election interference!
Given these wide-ranging precedents, it’s hard to imagine a function of government that doesn’t fall under the rubric of this doctrine of election-year inaction. Probably best to shut the whole thing down every four years. (Yes I know, they’re working on it.)
The wise among you have probably deduced that this philosophy of election-year caution is not as strict as it seems. Indeed, Trump and other Republicans favor action on all of the above functions when they themselves are in power and trying to keep it that way.
This is not exactly an inconsistency. Trump believes quite consistently that rules, standards, and truth itself is whatever benefits him at the moment. The MAGA movement and Republican officeholders are on board with that.
None of it should be accepted as reasonable or legitimate, however. A certain amount of caution is reasonable as an election approaches; too much easily becomes a political decision itself.
On an entirely separate note… I’ve always enjoyed browsing political ad buys to see which television shows different campaigns opt to place their message in.
There’s not much to see in daytime and late-night broadcast selections—they pretty much all want to be on local news, the morning shows, and the popular talk and game shows. You’ll get some variation—Democrats are more likely to opt for the Tamron Hall show, for instance—but not a lot.
Cable buys are likewise pretty straightforward—usually the buyer gives a dollar amount and a demographic target, and the cable provider slaps together a package with more or less HGTV or Lifetime or ESPN to make it add up.
It’s fun to see which campaigns are spending the money to advertise during big sports events, especially in down-ballot races where $20,000 is a big chunk of money. The Harris and Trump campaigns, and their associated PACs, are already happily shelling out those bucks for NFL games in swing-state media markets. With the Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Twins heading to the MLB post-season (or possibly the Braves or Tigers), October will offer some additional opportunities.
But again, those are no-brainers for both sides in a campaign. The biggest differences—and fun opportunities to play “interpret this decision”—come in broadcast network prime time. In swing state cities, obviously—big ones, because, for example, Milwaukee turns out to be cheap enough that the Trump campaign basically blankets the wholoe prime time schedule. (Lucky folks in Milwaukee.)
So, I took a look at the current orders in Phoenix and Pennsylvania for the Trump and Harris campaigns, as well as the Make America Great Again (MAGA) and Future Forward (FF) committees. Do the differences tell us anything? You decide!
The Trump campaign is heavily into procedurals, of which there are plenty to choose from these days. Phoenicians and Philadelphians can catch his ads on NCIS, FBI franchise shows, the Chicago first responder series, the Law & Orders (though not SVU—too close to home?). Harris hits some of those, but includes more reality competition, such as Big Brother and Survivor, and even a sitcom, Young Sheldon.
Both pile onto America’s Got Talent, Golden Bachelorette, and prime-time game show special Password. Harris, MAGA, and FF are big on The Voice. MAGA is the only one so far buying the premiere of the new Kathy Bates show Matlock—am I wrong to think that’s going to be a great viewership for them? The MAGA PAC is also the only one choosing Friday night’s Secret Celebrity Renovation, featuring Mookie Betts. I have no read on that one.
I’m a little surprised that Harris, not Trump, picked Tracker, a show about “a lone-wolf survivalist.” Her campaign is also alone on Grey’s Anatomy. All four are on Brilliant Minds in one city or the other; I’ll leave the joke on that last one for you. But speaking of medical dramas, none of the four committees has bought time on the premiere of Doctor Odyssey, an ABC show about the doctor on a luxury cruise ship. Perhaps less surprising, they’re all steering clear of RuPaul’s prime time game show Lingo. Harris and MAGA are both advertising on Celebrity Wheel of Fortune. Shockingly, to me, the Trump campaign is the only one advertising on Dancing With the Stars in Phoenix; Harris is the only one on it in Philadelphia. Generally speaking, they all are less inclined to advertise on ABC shows than CBS and NBC; ABC might be a little too young and hip for them.
It's possible that all of that means nothing, of course. So I’ll close with something that might.
The Trump campaign is currently spending just $8,000 a week for 16 spots on KTVW, and $10,800 for 15 spots on KTAZ. Those are Phoenix’s Univision and Telemundo stations, respectively. The buys are even smaller on the Philadelphia equivalents, WUVP and WWSI. The MAGA committee has not bought on either station, from what I can find in the filings.
Harris and the Future Forward committee are spending more than a half-million dollars a week on those stations. That includes spots on Top Chef VIP, the daily La Isla: Desafio Extremo reality competition show, and several spots during prime time telenovelas. Will it matter? Who knows. Gotta try and hope.
"Given these wide-ranging precedents, it’s hard to imagine a function of government that doesn’t fall under the rubric of this doctrine of election-year inaction." I am sure that the GOP would be happy to endorse any action by the current administration that makes things worse! For example, a botched attempt to rescue hostages (see, Carter/Iran) would be greeted with glee!