Trump's Trials, Their Tribulations
Republican Senate candidates struggle to raise money as donors rally 'round their persecuted leader
Donald Trump’s campaign claimed to raise more than $1 million in small donations last Monday, the first day of the candidate’s first criminal trial. It was, his campaign boasted, one of its three biggest one-day online hauls of the year, and evidence of Republican voters rallying against persecution of the former President.
It was also as much as Mike Rogers raised in the entire first three months of this year. Rogers, currently a member of the House of Representatives, is the Trump-endorsed candidate for an open U.S. Senate seat in Michigan. He is likely to win his August 6 primary, but with just $1.4 million cash on hand at the end of March he is woefully outmatched by the leading Democratic candidate, Representative Elissa Slotkin, who raised $4.4 million in the first quarter of 2024 and has $8.6 million stashed.
I can’t help but wonder: is the party leader’s one-man grievance show, the “lawfare” saga playing out across multiple courtroom battlefields, making it hard for important GOP candidates such as Rogers to garner attention and contributions?
It's certainly not just Rogers. In crucial Senate races across the country, Democrats reported outraising Republicans by huge margins in Q1 2024. Ruben Gallego outraised Kari Lake better than two-to-one in Arizona. The ratios were even greater for incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Jacky Rosen in Nevada, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin over their top Republican opponents. Dave McCormick, winner of this week’s Republican Senate primary in Pennsylvania, has done better but still trails Bob Casey in amount raised and cash on hand.
The Democrats’ main Senate fundraising vehicle (DSCC) is also besting its Republican counterpart (NRSC). Even fairly safe incumbents Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida are being out-raised by their Democratic challengers.
The lopsided funding carries over to House races as well. CNN reports that Democrats outraised Republicans in 20 of 22 Toss-Up seats in Q1 (using Cook Report ratings).
Surely Republican donors, of both the $25 and $2500 variety, want to see their party take control in the Senate, where the Democrats’ current 51-49 majority has frustrated numerous conservative fantasies.
Both sets of donors, the small and large, have been increasingly ponying up for the Presidential candidate himself as his legal troubles worsen. Trump’s multiple campaign vehicles still lag far behind Team Biden’s Midas-like $192 million war chest, but the Trump Save America and Trump 47 joint fundraising committees hauled in $88 million in Q1, and that was before the purported $50 million fundraising dinner in Palm Beach earlier this month.
Maybe it’s not the attention on Trump that’s causing the drought on the legislative side. Perhaps right wing interest in Senate races has deflated due to post-Dobbs ambivalence about federal abortion legislation; or because of the security of a 6-3 Supreme Court conservative majority; or even because of the uncertain leadership situation as Mitch McConnell steps down.
And of course, poor fundraising at this stage doesn’t necessarily mean Republicans are doomed in all these races come November. Rogers, for instance, might pick up steam as donors become convinced that he’s going to be the nominee. Some GOP Senate candidates might have secured promises of well-stuffed Super PAC coffers come Fall. And quite a few—Tim Sheehy in Montana, Bernie Moreno in Ohio, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, and McCormick—are wealthy individuals likely to spend multiples of the millions they have already self-funded.
And, if indeed those candidates’ fundraising is being sucked away by the black hole of right-wing media attention on Trump’s judicial martyrdom, well, their November fortunes might very well rise or fall on his anyway, so perhaps it’s all for the best.