Beware the Clever Fallacy

Understanding Trump's irrational choices. Plus the links.

I wrote about the tariffs last week, but I’ll add a quick comment here to agree with Dan Drezner, who puts it this way:

[T]here was no process. There are no power brokers. On questions of trade, there’s Donald Trump’s whims, his collection of clown car enablers, and maybe an intern who plugs some things into ChatGPT. That’s pretty much it.

I caution everyone again: Beware the Clever Fallacy. Pundits are by nature generally a clever bunch (not necessarily smart, but clever). We’re very good at figuring out the rationale for seemingly irrational choices made by politicians and government officials; in many cases, that’s how you get to be a columnist or a TV talking head or a successful podcaster. That can be very valuable when one is trying to figure out why Mike Johnson or Joe Biden or Mitch McConnell did something. It’s a trap when Trump is involved, because with Trump there’s usually no sensible underlying reasons at all. We’re almost always better off just believing the surface explanation.

It’s not just pundits, either; I think we all really resist the idea that the President of the United States could be that simple-minded. There’s got to be a deeper explanation for it. But really? Probably not. Sorry. That’s what we have, and we should face the truth.

Trump is initiating ruinous tariffs because, as he keeps telling everyone, he really likes tariffs. He seems to think they’re magic. And with, as Drezner points out, no one to talk him out of it, he’s getting what he wants. That’s about it.

Oh, there’s presumably an origin story – he apparently hates wind power because of something having to do with one of his properties once. But it doesn’t really matter why he loves tariffs. He just does, and that’s all there is to it.

A little late, what with travel and all, but here are last week’s links. And if you want more of me, I was a guest on Erich McElroy’s podcast last week. Our GP/BP audio posts will pick back up soon. Meanwhile, the good stuff:

1. Jennifer McCoy, Rachel Beatty Riedl, Kenneth Roberts, and Murat Somer at Good Authority on defending democracy.

2. Rick Hasen on the election in Wisconsin.

3. Seth Masket on a nation without democracy.

4. Jon Green on voting and hot dogs.

5. Matt Grossmann talks with Katherine Krimmel about the parties and policy.

6. Jenn Jackson on violence, non-violence, and self-defense.

7. And Henry Farrell on divisions within the Trump coalition.