Feisty MAGA

Republican primary voters Tuesday appeared to be in something of an anti-incumbent mood. That might be (more) trouble for the GOP.

A certain strain of political junkie — myself included — has been looking forward to what should have been a thoroughly uninteresting Indiana primary this Tuesday. There were no statewide primary elections on the ballot. All nine incumbent U.S. House members (7 Republicans, 2 Democrats) are running, and were expected to glide to re-election. And the state legislature’s balance of power is securely in GOP hands.

What sparked the outside interest lay in that state legislature, where back in December, 21 Republican state senators joined their Democratic colleagues in voting down a redistricting plan, championed by President Trump, that aimed to put all nine Indiana congressional seats in red territory. Nine of those 21 supposed turncoats are due for re-election this year (Indiana staggers its legislative districts, with half scheduled each two-year cycle). One of the nine opted not to run; Trump, furious at the betrayal, endorsed primary challengers seven of the other eight. Turning Point USA, Club for Growth, and other MAGA interests spent millions to help the insurgents.

As I write Tuesday evening, only one of the No voters on redistricting has won his primary — and that by a slim majority. Six have lost, and one is too close to call. A Trump endorsee is also set to win the open primary where the eighth is retiring. And yet another long-time Republican state senator, not targeted for the redistricting issue (but endorsed by Mike Pence, a MAGA sin of its own) lost as well.

It is, needless to say, highly unusual for so many incumbent state legislators to lose their primaries.

That Republican voter uprising would seem to be due to that redistricting vote, and/or the power of Trump’s endorsement. (In the district where Trump did not endorse against a No voter, the winner ran on a promise to “stand up to the corrupt (GOP) leadership in Indy who betrayed our party to vote with the Radical left-wing Democrats”)

But…

The Indiana congressional primaries were a little bit funny too. None of the seven GOP incumbents lost, but several had a tougher time than one would expect.

Two in particular caught my eye. Victoria Spartz — who, to be sure, has had trouble with the conservative base before — staggered to a 60%-40% primary win, despite Trump’s endorsement and a virtually non-existent opponent. Scott A. King, a political newcomer who lists his occupation as “pursuing a political career,” had no campaign web page, failed to submit a campaign finance report, and, to the extent he ran at all, ran on such priorities as ending U.S. participation in GeoEngineering and World Government, and investigating the Clear Skies Initiative of 2003. On Election Day, King posted to Facebook about the danger of “voice to skull technology.” He received 40 percent of the GOP primary vote for Congress.

Even closer was the challenge to Jefferson Shreve, also endorsed by Trump. A whopping 47 percent of Tuesday’s vote went to Sarah Janisse Brown, a MAHA movement figure who touts herself as “mother of 15, author of 360+ educational books.” Brown had raised just $16,000 in contributions as of April 15, and very nearly ousted Shreve,

Incumbents Merlin Stutzman and Jim Baird also posted relatively weak showings, for incumbents in primaries against seemingly token adversaries.

I don’t want to read too much into these results, especially not being on the ground doing any reporting on Indiana.

But I wonder if we might be seeing a rise in disaffection among the Republican faithful — a mood where relatively moderate Republicans stay grumpily home, while discouraged mainstream Republicans combine with the far-right base to send a message to incumbents who aren’t accomplishing what they are, respectively, hoping for.

That could result in some Republican primary winners who are unacceptable to general election voters. I don’t think that happened in the two or three GOP congressional primaries in potentially vulnerable districts Tuesday, such as IN-01, OH-01, and OH-09. But it’s something I’ll keep my eye on.