How Is This Polling Possible?

Polls tell us that the current election is exactly--to a T, state-by-state, exactly--where the 2020 election ended. I find that mathematically implausible.

Something’s been bugging me lately about the state of the Presidential election, and it escalated to something I had to write about when I read this in Nate Cohn’s New York Times column Wednesday:

There’s no sign of the political chaos of the last few months. Instead, the results look typical: Nationwide, Kamala Harris leads Donald J. Trump by three perc…