More Troubles with Shutdowns
Plus all the links.
If you read my item this week suggesting that a causing a government shutdown may well be the least-bad option for the Democrats this month, be sure to read Matt Glassman, who details all the reasons that shutdowns are disasters for the party that causes them. The thing is? I don’t think we really agree on all that much, even though we wind up at different advice to the Democrats.
Indeed, you should also read Matthew Green at Mischiefs of Faction, who thinks that this is the wrong fight for Democrats to pick.And Josh Huder, who thinks that a shutdown is a bad idea, but may nevertheless be necessary for the Democrats in order to keep their coalition together.
Democrats and those urging them on should take all of this seriously. In particular:
Shutting down the government is a proven poor bargaining strategy. You shouldn’t expect to win more from forcing a shutdown (and, like it or not, that’s what a shutdown by filibuster would be) than from normal bargaining.
The question isn’t whether a shutdown is better than cutting a deal; the question is whether a shutdown and the endgame in which the government reopens is better than cutting a deal before the government closes. Including the possibility that the Democrats collapse under pressure, as Republicans have always done when they initiated a shutdown.
Democrats should expect to take the blame. I’ve seen some people argue that it’s a question of spin, but it really isn’t; it’s structural.
I’m still intrigued at the idea of a fixed-date protest shutdown, as opposed to a normal bargaining shutdown. It has the virtue of a built-in end game that wouldn’t be ugly for the Democrats. That said, I don’t know that it would do the coalition-maintenance stuff that Huder talks about, although it might lower the downside risk.
The sense this week is that Democrats may be settling for policy demands that can be met from normal bargaining. We’ll see. I’ll remind everyone again that Democrats and others who oppose Trump are in fact fighting back in many ways (in the courts; in statehouses; in the streets; and more), including some that have been quite successful. This shutdown showdown is unlikely to be a winning fight, regardless of what they choose to do. And yet they have to do something. Whether I’m right about it or not, I’m confident that they’re only looking for the least bad option.
Time for the links:
1. Lindsey Comack on what Members of Congress are saying about the shutdown showdown so far
2. Stacie Goddard at Good Authority on the Russian drones over Poland.
3. Dan Drezner on sanctions against Russia.
4. Miranda Yaver on Medicare pre-approvals.
5. Cam Silver on Charlie Kirk, South Park, and teaching.
6. Dave Karpf on political violence.
7. Seth Masket on blaming Kamala Harris.
8. Natalie Jackson on Trump’s approval polling.
9. Jennifer Lind on the US and Intel.
10. And Eric Ostermeier on a possible Senate return for John Sununu. Not only would his gap in Senate tenure be unusual, but if he runs he’ll already be a Bateson class candidate – named after the Star Trek captain who returned after having been trapped in a time loop for a century or so.