Senate 2026

Democrats are already getting optimistic, but it might be intra-party contests, not Dem vs GOP ones, that provide the most interest this cycle.

Chuck Schumer, Minority Leader, recently said that Democrats will retake majority control of the U.S. Senate. Well, of course he would say that. But he’s not the only one. I’ve been hearing early optimism from Democrats and seeing it online from the resistance left. The New York Times even wrote about it this week.

The rosy thinking is based, of course, on the belief that President Donald Trump, already flagging in approval, will become widely loathed as his many chickens—tariffs, defiance of courts, incompetent cabinet, and so on—come home to roost. Midterm elections are typically rough for the President’s party anyway, and Democrats tend to remember Trump’s 2018 midterms as a major rebuke of his Presidency.

Which it was, in the House of Representatives. Democrats erased a 42 seat deficit in that chamber and took over the majority.

Pundits had warned that it would be much tougher for Democrats in the Senate, and so it proved. Republicans actually gained two seats there, increasing from 51 to 53. The GOP beat Democratic incumbents in four states, none of them exactly shocking in our current partisan divide: Florida (Rick Scott over Bill Nelson), Indiana (Mike Braun over Joe Donnelly), Missouri (Josh Hawley over Claire McCaskill), and North Dakota (Kevin Cramer over Heidi Heitkamp). Democrats flipped Arizona and Nevada to their column. Other states Democrats had hoped to win, for one reason or another—Mississippi, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas—stayed in the red column.

It's become awfully difficult to win Senate seats in states that tend toward the other party. The country used to have quite a few split delegations—states represented by one Democrat and one Republican Senator. Today just two states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, fit that description, plus Maine with Republican Susan Collins and former-Republican-turned-Independent-caucusing-with-the-Democrats Angus Kelly.

That’s why the map, as they say, is once again very difficult for Democrats hoping to regain majority control. In theory, that map should be ripe with opportunity: Republicans currently hold, and thus are defending, 20 of the 33 seats up for re-election, in a midterm with their party in power, in the form of the consistently unpopular Trump presidency.

But the GOP is not likely to sweat those defenses in places such as Oklahoma, Nebraska, and West Virginia. In fact, only one of those 20 GOP defenses in 2026 is in a state that Trump didn’t carry in 2024. That would be Maine, where folks will once again play the “surely we can beat Susan Collins” game. (This game is played regularly by right-wing activists as well as Democrats.) I spent some years covering New England politics, and the one thing I learned with certainty is that I cannot make heads nor tails of Maine voters, so I’m not going to make any predictions about the 72-year-old, five-term Senator. But I know the look of someone who thinks he can win three-card monte on the sixth try, and I see it in Democrats’ faces as they ponder that 2026 Maine Senate race.

Among the other 19 states where the GOP must hold serve next year, all were double-digit Trump 2024 victories except North Carolina. That makes Thom Tillis the second-best target for Democrats, after Collins. Perhaps that’s why he’s just announced his opposition to Trump’s nominee for U.S. Attorney in the District of Columbia.

Neither Maine nor North Carolina is a gimme for Dems. And even if they win both, and defend all of their own seats—including Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, where their incumbents have already announced retirements—that would still only get them to 49, needing two more for majority control (because the Republican Vice President serves as tie-breaker.)

To be sure, the defenses have gotten a boost recently. Former New Hampshire Governor John Sununu says he won’t run for the seat Jeanne Shaheen is vacating, making Congressman Chris Pappas a likely successor. And this week former Georgia Governor Brian Kemp announced that he’ll pass on a challenge to Democrat Jon Ossoff, setting up a likely B-List primary battle, possibly with the inimitable Marjorie Taylor Greene involved. Ossoff should be so lucky.

Nevertheless, getting from 49 to 51 in red states is where the rose-colored specs come in handy. In Texas, for instance, where Democratic small-dollar donations go to die, a new dream has ethically challenged state Attorney General Ken Paxton beating incumbent John Cornyn in a primary, and proving unelectable in November. In Alaska, unlikely Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola, if convinced to run against incumbent Dan Sullivan, is thought by some to have a chance. Others point to Kansas, where Democrats have had surprising state-wide success—although Governor Laura Kelly has said that she won’t run against Roger Marshall. I’ve seen some trying to suggest that Kentucky is in play, for the open seat from which Mitch McConnell is retiring—again, the one big Democratic name, Governor Andy Beshear, has said he won’t get into that race. Still more: Montana, where Jon Tester could run after losing his seat last year; Nebraska, where Independent Dan Osborn will apparently take a shot at Ben Sasse after giving Deb Fischer a scare last year; Ohio, where hopes remain for a Sherrod Brown return; and even Iowa, where Jodi Ernst is apparently going to get challengers from her right.

If you squint and look just right, you can think that there must be two victories somewhere in that list. Especially if the economy goes plunging into chaos while Republicans cut Medicaid and counsel buying fewer toys this Christmas.

I don’t see it yet, but I’m perhaps a bit jaded.

Senate primaries, however, could be a lot of fun. Both parties are filled with angry base voters looking to champion fighters against blander party favorites. I’ve mentioned a few of those potentially chippy primaries on the Republican side above. Democrats already have those four retirements to fight over, and plenty of talk about, say, AOC vs. Schumer, among others, for the soul of the party.

It's far too early to guess what will come of all this—too early for this post, I suppose—but it just might be that while Senate races no longer provide many inter-party nail-biters, the primaries will become a forum for more intra-party clashes. I’d watch that.