The number we should have looked at to predict a Trump victory

Trump's status as an ex-president was too unusual to put in much context. But it might have helped him.

To follow up on my earlier post about the danger of mandate claiming, I’d like to offer a simpler explanation of what happened on Tuesday. However else we want to think about the election result, it’s a genuine puzzle. Trump’s never been very popular, and his approval rating was generally lower than Harris’. A lot of his policy positions – though not al…