Undermining The GOP's Advantage?

Plus all the links

I’m starting to wonder whether Republicans have completely lost the ability to talk to anyone who isn’t fully immersed in their own talking points. Just as the White House is apparently worried that the government shutdown isn’t going well for them.

It should be.

The basic structure of the shutdown favors Republicans; that’s what I think every experienced observer said in September. And what’s even worse for the Democrats is that they entered into this without fully unifying their caucuses; it probably doesn’t matter much that they lost one vote in the House, but it’s a big deal that three of the 47 Senate Democrats have been voting for the Republican measure to, now, re-open closed agencies.

Republicans should have the high ground: They are offering a “clean CR” – a seven week funding measure that leaves current levels in place while negotiations for full-year spending bills continue. They have majorities in both chambers, with Democrats using the filibuster to keep the doors closed. And Republicans can note that their majority includes those three Democrats (although not one Republican Senator, Rand Paul).

Yes, I’m aware that some Democrats are saying that Republicans are obviously responsible for the stalemate since they hold the White House and majorities in both chambers. Hogwash. The Republicans have a bill that passed the House, has a (comfortable!) majority in the Senate, and is being defeated by filibuster.

(Democrats eager for Republicans to “go nuclear” and switch to a majority-party-rules Senate should be aware that there’s a real first-mover advantage to the party that makes that move; the filibuster is currently blocking quite a few GOP measures).

Matt Glassman, who had (yet another) excellent item on the showdown this week, put it this way:

Republicans [...] can expect to win the public opinion battle during the shutdown if they stick to a simple message of reopening the government and resuming the bargaining.

Indeed, the party with the White House should have a real advantage because it’s far easier for them to speak with one voice. Or at least to seem to do so.

And yet…

Perhaps I’ve missed some stuff this week what with holidays and all (and see David’s item earlier in the week that covers this ground from his perspective), but I’m not hearing that basic message much at all. I’m hearing lots of stuff about Donald Trump intending to use the shutdown to punish his enemies, and to (illegally) reshape the government permanently. I’m hearing a lot about trans issues and “illegal aliens” and the other standard GOP rhetoric aimed squarely at their strongest supporters. I’m seeing the House leave town for the duration, apparently to prevent swearing in a newly-elected Democrat who would sign a discharge petition and move forward a bill to force release of Epstein materials – which may be saving some Republicans from a tough vote, but is also getting Epstein into the news instead of the shutdown.

And I’m seeing lots of JD Vance, perhaps because Trump can’t manage to stay on message. Let’s just say I’m not convinced that Vance is a a strong salesman beyond that GOP core.

It’s early. Perhaps they just haven’t found their footing yet. But I do wonder whether we’re seeing a party with very little skill, and hardly even any interest, in talking to anyone other than its strongest supporters. Enough that they can manage to squander their considerable structural advantage? I guess we’ll see.

On to the links,

1. Isabelle DeSisto and Grigore Pop-Eleches at Good Authority on the elections in Moldova.

2. Miranda Yaver on “TrumpRx.”

3. Lindsey Cormack on members of Congress talking about evil.

4. Seth Masket on Democrats, learning lessons whether it’s good for them or not.

5. Dan Drezner on Pete Hegseth.

6. Norm Ornstein on US media and democracy.

7. And it’s always a must-have: Daniel Nichanian’s essential guide to the 2025 elections.