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By suggesting that the candidates don't matter (much), are you predicting that the Trump wing of the GOP will continue to dominate after Trump is no longer a potential candidate (through death disqualification, or--god forbid) serving two terms)?

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I have a sort-of answer sort of half written for a future post (last week before I realized how sick I was!). I think the Trump/HFC sort of wing will remain dominant over like Mitt Romney types, but I think there will be some changes specific to how Trump has been able to present himself politically - and figures like DeSantis have not. I don't think candidates are all perfectly interchangeable. But I am struck by how little candidates matter in some contexts.

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Yes, exactly. Candidates may not have significant electoral effects, but candidates and especially presidents have the capacity to change the party in all sorts of big and small ways. They're not unconstrained at all - other party actors matter too - but they are well positioned to affect the party on those things they really care about.

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