This reads like wish-casting rather than analysis. The overall American electorate is center-right and the Senate bias (and electoral college) tilt it further in that direction. Democratic elites need to get out of their deep blue district echo chambers and find a way to capture more of this electorate. The Biden/Warren Administration didn't seem to grasp and his inability to communicate compounded the problem.
Thoughtful that you asked. I subscribe because I think David Bernstein is maybe the smartest and funniest political pundit of the past 15 years. But my comments to yours and Jonathan’s posts are out of sheer frustration as a lifelong liberal Democrat that these two social scientists are so seemingly detached from reality that how can I expect Democratic elites to act strategically when even scientists like yourselves are are so far off the mark. And I want you to wake up. I am a nobody who lives in the deepest of deep blue Boston yet even I spend enough time with a mix of 50-75 year old Romney/Baker Republicans and regular old Democrats to have known not to bother door-knocking in PA this year (after having made the effort in ’16 and ’20). All of these people, whether they are Republicans or lifelong Democrats, find Trump to be a narcissistic transactional authoritarian gross loser. They all voted for Obama in 2008 and most did again in 2012. Like normal people they have a broad mix opinions on Gaza, immigration, guns and tax policy. But they also think pronouns in emails are weird, student loan debt relief was a political loser, that teacher’ unions had too much power on Covid era school decisions, that people born male shouldn’t be allowed to compete in HS and college women’s sports, that Elizabeth Warren is fingernails on a chalkboard, that It should have been Stein over Walz, that Hunter Biden should have been disavowed by his father and, most important, that Joe Biden was a doddering old fool the past two years and should never have been running again. On top of all that, the amount of MAGA gear we saw on young men at high school and college sports events (in Massachusetts!) made it clear that something had shifted. That Harris was as close as she was in swing states is remarkable considering how much the overall electorate shifted. Yet your writing didn’t reflect any of this and it continues to somehow avoid the reality of the electorate. We are crushed but we aren’t protesting because we know our side did everything possible to lose the race and we see no hope because they seem so unaware of how far afield from the electorate they have taken the party. Thanks for listening.
Professor, I see the term "polarization" used repeatedly as an explanation for the devotion to Trump that seems to become quasi religious. I can't say that I've seen polarization clearly defined, measured, or the high levels explained other than the growth of "my team come hell or high water" and frequent mention of grievances. I'd really like to see an explanation of why these high levels of polarization have occurred. I used to see claims for how many Americans were genuinely MAGA. With that term being defined as some kind of leap of faith in Trump that's impervious to anything, becoming a cultist in other words. I recall 15-20% being mentioned in the first years of Trump 1, then that number going up into the 30s. I'd be really curious just how many folks who voted for Trump 2 viewed him as just another standard politician or as a protest vote, rather than a religious figure. I have this bad feeling the MAGA percentage is in the high 30s, at least.
Yes. As far as pure Trumpism...hard to really know, but it's worth noting that he wound up taking about 75% of the primary vote in 2024, but that included being unopposed for a lot of the contest, so maybe 60% when it was contested, and not all of that would be hard-core supporters.
Professor, that hard-core part is my dilemma with Trump. I can tell myself at least a partway plausible story of how someone makes the leap of faith. The folks who are capable of turning against him, or even had voted against him in the past, but decided we really needed him back this time...those really baffle me. Reading what you guys have written gave me the idea my problem is trying to find a hopeful answer for how someone decides Trump is the answer. :-)
"An important theme over the last few weeks of the Trump administration (it hasn’t even been a month yet!) is how many constituencies his various disruptions are seemingly tailor-made to piss off."
I'm sorry if I missed this in your column, but do you think Trump is doing these things just to deliberately piss them off? If not, why do you think he has pursued this course of action?
You talk about the "wrecking ball", "norms" and Trump doing Musk's bidding. Maybe the "wrecking ball" approach is necessary because nothing else has worked thus far to examine the workings of the administrative state or bureaucracy. Like it or not, the President is in charge of it and has some say in how it works. As Deep Throat said to Woodward and Bernstein, "follow the money", and that's exactly what Trump wants Musk to do. And they are apparently over the target based on all the whining and complaining that is coming primarily from DLPs (Democrats, Liberals and Progressives). If all this funding is absolutely necessary then there should not be this level of panic. Transparency and accountability should be welcomed by government and it's certainly expected by the electorate.
This is an interesting article, but using words like ‘disjunction,’ without defining the word, is typical of the criticisms of our side’s failure to win.
Is it 'the relationship between two distinct alternatives' or 'lack of correspondence or consistency,' or both?
And what precise examples can you provide? I know there are many.
This reads like wish-casting rather than analysis. The overall American electorate is center-right and the Senate bias (and electoral college) tilt it further in that direction. Democratic elites need to get out of their deep blue district echo chambers and find a way to capture more of this electorate. The Biden/Warren Administration didn't seem to grasp and his inability to communicate compounded the problem.
the fact that you come on here to make comments like this to me consistently makes me really wonder why you bother reading.
Thoughtful that you asked. I subscribe because I think David Bernstein is maybe the smartest and funniest political pundit of the past 15 years. But my comments to yours and Jonathan’s posts are out of sheer frustration as a lifelong liberal Democrat that these two social scientists are so seemingly detached from reality that how can I expect Democratic elites to act strategically when even scientists like yourselves are are so far off the mark. And I want you to wake up. I am a nobody who lives in the deepest of deep blue Boston yet even I spend enough time with a mix of 50-75 year old Romney/Baker Republicans and regular old Democrats to have known not to bother door-knocking in PA this year (after having made the effort in ’16 and ’20). All of these people, whether they are Republicans or lifelong Democrats, find Trump to be a narcissistic transactional authoritarian gross loser. They all voted for Obama in 2008 and most did again in 2012. Like normal people they have a broad mix opinions on Gaza, immigration, guns and tax policy. But they also think pronouns in emails are weird, student loan debt relief was a political loser, that teacher’ unions had too much power on Covid era school decisions, that people born male shouldn’t be allowed to compete in HS and college women’s sports, that Elizabeth Warren is fingernails on a chalkboard, that It should have been Stein over Walz, that Hunter Biden should have been disavowed by his father and, most important, that Joe Biden was a doddering old fool the past two years and should never have been running again. On top of all that, the amount of MAGA gear we saw on young men at high school and college sports events (in Massachusetts!) made it clear that something had shifted. That Harris was as close as she was in swing states is remarkable considering how much the overall electorate shifted. Yet your writing didn’t reflect any of this and it continues to somehow avoid the reality of the electorate. We are crushed but we aren’t protesting because we know our side did everything possible to lose the race and we see no hope because they seem so unaware of how far afield from the electorate they have taken the party. Thanks for listening.
Professor, I see the term "polarization" used repeatedly as an explanation for the devotion to Trump that seems to become quasi religious. I can't say that I've seen polarization clearly defined, measured, or the high levels explained other than the growth of "my team come hell or high water" and frequent mention of grievances. I'd really like to see an explanation of why these high levels of polarization have occurred. I used to see claims for how many Americans were genuinely MAGA. With that term being defined as some kind of leap of faith in Trump that's impervious to anything, becoming a cultist in other words. I recall 15-20% being mentioned in the first years of Trump 1, then that number going up into the 30s. I'd be really curious just how many folks who voted for Trump 2 viewed him as just another standard politician or as a protest vote, rather than a religious figure. I have this bad feeling the MAGA percentage is in the high 30s, at least.
there are tons of scholarly explanations and definitions of polarization. Lily Mason has written stuff, as has John Sides, Hans Noel, etc.
Yes. As far as pure Trumpism...hard to really know, but it's worth noting that he wound up taking about 75% of the primary vote in 2024, but that included being unopposed for a lot of the contest, so maybe 60% when it was contested, and not all of that would be hard-core supporters.
Professor, that hard-core part is my dilemma with Trump. I can tell myself at least a partway plausible story of how someone makes the leap of faith. The folks who are capable of turning against him, or even had voted against him in the past, but decided we really needed him back this time...those really baffle me. Reading what you guys have written gave me the idea my problem is trying to find a hopeful answer for how someone decides Trump is the answer. :-)
"An important theme over the last few weeks of the Trump administration (it hasn’t even been a month yet!) is how many constituencies his various disruptions are seemingly tailor-made to piss off."
I'm sorry if I missed this in your column, but do you think Trump is doing these things just to deliberately piss them off? If not, why do you think he has pursued this course of action?
You talk about the "wrecking ball", "norms" and Trump doing Musk's bidding. Maybe the "wrecking ball" approach is necessary because nothing else has worked thus far to examine the workings of the administrative state or bureaucracy. Like it or not, the President is in charge of it and has some say in how it works. As Deep Throat said to Woodward and Bernstein, "follow the money", and that's exactly what Trump wants Musk to do. And they are apparently over the target based on all the whining and complaining that is coming primarily from DLPs (Democrats, Liberals and Progressives). If all this funding is absolutely necessary then there should not be this level of panic. Transparency and accountability should be welcomed by government and it's certainly expected by the electorate.
This is an interesting article, but using words like ‘disjunction,’ without defining the word, is typical of the criticisms of our side’s failure to win.
Is it 'the relationship between two distinct alternatives' or 'lack of correspondence or consistency,' or both?
And what precise examples can you provide? I know there are many.