"That still wouldn’t make it popular — remember, 'popular among Trump’s strongest supporters' still leaves some two-thirds of the nation who might not like something." I think this analysis is in error. The flip side of "Trump's strongest supporters" is not 2/3 "who might not like something". Most people don't give a hoot about Cabinet picks. You're talking about maybe 25% of the adult population or 45-50% of the electorate who might not like the Gaetz pick.
Yes, most people (including Trump supporters!) don't care about cabinet picks. But they may nevertheless have opinions, or at least answer pollster questions when they're asked, about those that are in the news a lot. And what's more: If the unpopular picks dominate the news, then they're likely to use that when they answer questions about how good a job Trump is doing. Of course, it won't last - by summer, all this will be forgotten. But it could definitely affect Trump's approval while it is an active story.
I'll go out on a short limb and say that he was as popular as he ever will be the first couple days after the election when he was still bathing in the "Epic landslide! Historical Mandate!" glow. Now it seems increasingly understood he received less than 50% of the popular vote. I assume the implications of that along with the realization that he's off to the start of a bad 2nd term will sink in. There's not going to be any Teutonic efficiency in Trump 2. It seems to me the outstanding question now concerns the Rs senators. Are they going to emasculate themselves and follow him blindly? These are people who supposedly are great at calculating rational self-interest, irrespective of morality and silly things like that. Are all of them going to conclude blind obedience is the smart play?
"That still wouldn’t make it popular — remember, 'popular among Trump’s strongest supporters' still leaves some two-thirds of the nation who might not like something." I think this analysis is in error. The flip side of "Trump's strongest supporters" is not 2/3 "who might not like something". Most people don't give a hoot about Cabinet picks. You're talking about maybe 25% of the adult population or 45-50% of the electorate who might not like the Gaetz pick.
Yes, most people (including Trump supporters!) don't care about cabinet picks. But they may nevertheless have opinions, or at least answer pollster questions when they're asked, about those that are in the news a lot. And what's more: If the unpopular picks dominate the news, then they're likely to use that when they answer questions about how good a job Trump is doing. Of course, it won't last - by summer, all this will be forgotten. But it could definitely affect Trump's approval while it is an active story.
I'll go out on a short limb and say that he was as popular as he ever will be the first couple days after the election when he was still bathing in the "Epic landslide! Historical Mandate!" glow. Now it seems increasingly understood he received less than 50% of the popular vote. I assume the implications of that along with the realization that he's off to the start of a bad 2nd term will sink in. There's not going to be any Teutonic efficiency in Trump 2. It seems to me the outstanding question now concerns the Rs senators. Are they going to emasculate themselves and follow him blindly? These are people who supposedly are great at calculating rational self-interest, irrespective of morality and silly things like that. Are all of them going to conclude blind obedience is the smart play?